Earthquake Casts Uncertainty Over a Host of Chinese Stocks
China’s stock markets could be affected for months by Monday’s deadly earthquake in the southwestern province of Sichuan.
Chinese stocks ranging from insurers to cement makers will be sensitive to reports of the destruction from the 7.9-magnitude earthquake that continue to trickle in from remote areas. Stocks in companies with major operations in southwestern China and property insurers could sink further, while construction-related stocks are expected to rise on the government’s plans to rebuild.
On Tuesday, China’s domestic exchanges in Shanghai and Shenzhen suspended shares of 66 listed companies based in Sichuan province and the neighboring municipality of Chongqing pending details on their exposure.
"It will be some time before the full extent of the damage can be assessed," said Jing Ulrich, chairwoman of China equities at J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. "However, early reports suggest that the impact on the macroeconomy may end up being significant."
She pointed to property developers, toll-road operators and manufacturers with substantial operations in the region as the stocks likely to suffer most. Many of those stocks were suspended from trading Tuesday.
China’s State Administration of Work Safety told companies to shut oil wells and mines in affected areas until conditions improve and workers can safely return to their jobs, according to a statement posted on its Web site.
PetroChina, the country’s biggest oil producer by output, has substantial operations in Sichuan, including a natural-gas field and an oil-products pipeline. Its Shanghai-listed shares declined 2.6% Tuesday to close at 17.39 yuan ($2.49) apiece. A senior PetroChina official said Monday that in the initial hours after the quake, the company hadn’t received reports of any major damage to its production facilities there.
The earthquake is the country’s most intense since a 1976 one of similar magnitude struck Tangshan, a city in eastern China, killing about 240,000. The death toll from Monday’s disaster rose above 12,000 Tuesday.
For Chinese insurers, the earthquake will be the second major blow this year. In January and February, snowstorms paralyzed the country’s infrastructure and left much of its migrant worker population stranded during the Chinese Lunar New Year holiday.
Among the three mainland-listed life insurance companies, China Life Insurance has the biggest exposure to the disaster area, with a 38.6% share of the life insurance market in Sichuan, while China Pacific Insurance (Group) holds 11% and Ping An Insurance (Group) of China has 10.7%, according to a research note by Ping An Securities, a unit of Ping An Insurance.
"As an insurer, we constantly assess the effect of natural disasters on our earnings. While there’ll be some effect on our earnings this year, I believe the impact will likely be limited" Ping An Insurance’s chairman, Ma Mingzhe, said Tuesday. Mr. Ma said it is too early to estimate claims related to the earthquake.
China Life’s Shanghai-listed shares dropped 4.8% to 31.62 yuan Tuesday, while those of China Pacific Insurance fell 7.2% to 24.69 yuan. The Shanghai Composite index declined 1.8%. Shares of Ping An were suspended from trading because of a shareholder meeting.
"Though I think China Life and Ping An are worthy of long-term investment, their stocks will likely continue to lose attraction, not only because of the disaster but also due to the uncertainty in the stock market," said Wu Yonggang, an analyst at Guotai Junan Securities.
Merrill Lynch economists argue that the earthquake should have less of an effect on the country’s export-oriented industries, because the chief production sites for those are along the eastern coast.
"We also see little impact on China’s currency, because the earthquake took place in regions almost negligible for China’s external trade," Merrill Lynch economists Ting Lu and T.J. Bond wrote in the report.
In the quake’s aftermath, banks might see looser credit policies. The government, which has clamped down on lending growth to attack inflation, eased up after the snowstorms, and relaxed controls on loans to affected areas.
"This disaster is likely to bring a partial relaxation in efforts to tighten credit, with local banks encouraged to offer loans in the worst-affected areas," says Ms. Ulrich of J.P. Morgan Chase. "We expect reconstruction activity to proceed swiftly due to the national focus on responding to the crisis, and this will support growth in fixed-asset investments."
Shares in Anhui Conch Cement, one of the country’s largest cement producers, rose 5.5% in Shanghai trading to close at 64.19 yuan Tuesday. Tangshan Jidong Cement rose by the daily limit of 10% in Shenzhen to close at 18.81 yuan.
5月12日中國西南部四川省發(fā)生嚴(yán)重地震。此次地震對中國股市的影響或許會(huì)持續(xù)數(shù)月。
從保險(xiǎn)公司到水泥制造商等多個(gè)類股將對此次7.9級地震造成哪些損害的報(bào)道尤為敏感。那些主要業(yè)務(wù)在中國西南部的公司的股票，以及財(cái)產(chǎn)險(xiǎn)保險(xiǎn)公司的股票或?qū)⑦M(jìn)一步走低，而受政府重建計(jì)劃的利好消息推動(dòng)，受此次災(zāi)害沖擊的建筑類股將會(huì)走高。
5月13日中國滬深股市66家四川省和重慶直轄市的上市公司股票臨時(shí)停牌，等待公布進(jìn)一步損失情況。
摩根大通中國證券市場部總監(jiān)李晶認(rèn)為：“對此次災(zāi)害損失的全面評估得等上一段時(shí)間，但初步報(bào)道表明地震對中國宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響可能會(huì)很大。”
她指出對房產(chǎn)商，收費(fèi)公路運(yùn)營商和業(yè)務(wù)主要在受災(zāi)地區(qū)的制造商來說，它們股票遭受的損失將可能是最嚴(yán)重的。許多這類公司的股票周二都被停盤。
國家安全生產(chǎn)監(jiān)督管理總局在其官方網(wǎng)站上發(fā)布聲明，要求各大公司關(guān)閉它們在災(zāi)區(qū)的油礦和油井，直到情況有所好轉(zhuǎn)，工人可安全返崗后再恢復(fù)生產(chǎn)。
中國石油產(chǎn)量最大的企業(yè)中國石油天然氣股份有限公司在四川有大量業(yè)務(wù)，包括一個(gè)天然氣田和一條石油管道。公司在上海上市的股票昨日下跌2.6%，收于17.39元。中石油一高管周一表示在地震發(fā)生后最初幾小時(shí)，公司還未收到任何報(bào)告表明其生產(chǎn)設(shè)施遭到嚴(yán)重毀壞。
周一地震是中國自1976年唐山大地震以來最嚴(yán)重的一次。唐山大地震中24萬余人喪生，而此次四川大地震死亡人數(shù)已上升至1萬2千多。
對中國保險(xiǎn)公司來說，此次地震是今年以來遭受的第二次重?fù)簟Ｒ辉潞投轮袊戏窖?zāi)使中國基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施陷入癱瘓，許多外來務(wù)工人員在春節(jié)期間不得不滯留他鄉(xiāng)。
根據(jù)平安保險(xiǎn)旗下平安證券的研究數(shù)據(jù)，三家在內(nèi)地上市的保險(xiǎn)公司中，中國人壽保險(xiǎn)在災(zāi)區(qū)的業(yè)務(wù)最多，它占有四川38.6%的人壽保險(xiǎn)市場份額，而中國太平洋保險(xiǎn)和平安在四川的市占率分別為11%和10.7%。
平安集團(tuán)董事長馬明哲周二表示：“作為保險(xiǎn)公司，我們會(huì)不斷評估自然災(zāi)害給我們收益帶來的影響。今年公司利潤會(huì)受地震影響，但我相信這種影響可能有限。”他表示現(xiàn)在估算地震相關(guān)賠償金額還為時(shí)過早。
周二中國人壽保險(xiǎn)在滬上市的A股下跌4.8%，收報(bào)31.62元。太平洋保險(xiǎn)跌幅為7.2%，收報(bào)24.69元。上證綜合指數(shù)則下滑1.8%。平安因召開股東大會(huì)而停牌。
國泰君安證券分析師吳勇剛表示：“盡管我認(rèn)為中國人壽和平安是值得長期投資的，但它們的股票可能會(huì)繼續(xù)失去吸引力，這不僅是因?yàn)槭艿卣饹_擊，也因?yàn)槭芄墒胁淮_定性的影響。”
美林經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家則認(rèn)為此次地震對中國那些出口為主的行業(yè)影響不大，因?yàn)檫@些行業(yè)大多分布在東部沿海地區(qū)。
美林經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家Ting Lu和T.J. Bond在這份報(bào)告中指出：“地震對中國貸幣即人民幣匯率影響也不大，由于受災(zāi)地區(qū)對中國外貿(mào)領(lǐng)域影響幾乎可忽略不計(jì)。”
中國銀行業(yè)在地震過后可能會(huì)放松借貸政策。政府已通過限制貸款增長來抑制通脹，但南方雪災(zāi)過后這種政策有所松動(dòng)，放寬了對災(zāi)區(qū)貸款的限制。
摩根大通的李晶稱：“這次天災(zāi)可能促使一定程度的信貸放松，政府或?qū)⒐膭?lì)當(dāng)?shù)劂y行向受災(zāi)最嚴(yán)重的地區(qū)放貸。由于全國重心轉(zhuǎn)移到應(yīng)對這場危機(jī)上，重建工作將快速推進(jìn)，這些都能促進(jìn)固定資產(chǎn)投資的增長。”
國內(nèi)最大的水泥生產(chǎn)商安徽海螺水泥的股價(jià)周二上漲了5.5%，以64.19元收盤。唐山冀東水泥漲停(漲幅超10%上限)，收于18.81元。
